CROSSROAD (?)

USD boosted against majors even after spending cut.

DOW and S&P covered sharply from low on Friday and settled near the day high and specially DOW spot at 14089.66, just few point lower of all time high settlement of 14093.08.

Possibly we can see some interesting movement in coming days as major indices, precious and currencies are in crossroad.

GOLD & SILVER:

GOLD was facing selling pressure before last week, slips to $1554.6, and settled at $1575.7 near 2012 lowest close of $1564.5. It is below the secondary bearish channel but for last two weeks it was holding sideways, holding above a critical and major sup area of $1500-$1522.

Open interest reduced last week.

SILVER movement alike gold, here within a secondary bearish channel and on week formed a dozi at  channel sup, although taken out a long trend line sup @30$ area but holding above  strong sup area holding from 2011 is 26$, which is 50% retracement of 1995-2001 low and 2011 high which was a retest of record high.

Seems a half round above $26 has done on weekly settlement basis, to watch if can complete.

Any convincing breakout of critical and major sup areas for gold below $1500/1530 and silver $26, can be damaging for midterm.

ECB, BoE , BoJ rate decisions, China reports and US unemployment rate, nonfarm including some other economical report will bring volatility and direction next week after US declares of spending cut.

Major indices DOW and S&P on record high area while gold and silver holding on major sup for retracement hits all time high. 

(chart 3: long term chart on DOW spot vs gold spot and S&P spot vs gold spot)

Growth, risk, investment and hedge. Currency, Commodity, Indices(equity) .....  choice is ones own. 

(chart 4: gold spot and DOW spot vs USD index)

NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always as it carries risk. 

GOLD TO SHINE

Here taken Gold (spot) chart on weekly basis from 2004 to 2012, full eight years’ movement. Can get two equal part (high/low basis) within as 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012.

1^st part:

It was 376$ of 2004 low, made on month of May’04 and 2008 high was 1038$, made on month of march’08 , scenario of growth behind everywhere including emerging countries just before the housing bubble of US burst, pulling the country in recession and outlook became shaky.

Can see on chart that Gold was pulled down and has taken a retracement of Fib 50% (within March’08 to Oct’08) and ran for a new record breaking 2008 high on Oct’09.        

2^nd part:

After taking out of 2008 high on Oct’09, till now the record high holds at 1920$, made on sept’11. In 2012 gold sticks within a range of 1800$ to 1522$ (278$) and even not retraced to Fib 38.2%, which comes @ 1453$.

Present situation:

Volume is low and sometimes it is very thin. Some sort of manipulation by big funds to pull prices down by hitting huge sell stops with the chance of thin volume took places as per reports observed. But its’ may temporary as b’coz it is very hard to keep market cornered for long time.

 

Still prices holding well above 200 EMA and 100 EMA. Seems it’s a phase of accumulation, gathering momentum.

Near term:

Forming a bull flag in nearby area. Where a sup can consider @1628$, at Fib 23.6% and res which gradually lowered with time but any breakout can shoot to retest 1800$, the 2012 high.

Background and long-term:

From all the corner, as economical or geopolitical its supportive for gold. Question of fiat currency dependency, debt of countries, inflation or deflation and even hyperinflation is also supportive. Even if we can come back to growth then also demand can’t become less rather it‘ll increase.

So, yellow metal has very very negligible chance to become pale rather to shine and glitter. Holding the idea of 2600$, may within 2013 or 1^st quarter of 2014.

So,its a matter of time only for clarity in direction with any breakout for holding longs otherwise to be within range.

NB: market carries risk. This information and thought for academic interest and inside circulation. 

gold and copper

$GOLD: comex gold nearby one good sup area (psychological too) is $1700. it seems here may try to make its 2nd shoulder, if so then it will become a inverse H&S and confirmation to get after
settling above neck line (ascending green line on chart), nearby days it may $1746/48 ($1750)or
may higher area if take longer time.

So, for mid to long term view is to long gold on dips with stop below $1700.





$COPPER: comex copper hold its sup area of 340c here for a longer time and seems may going to
form a rounded bottom here where nearby res will be 355c area.
RSI indicator also suggesting of building here on 340c.

So, for midterm view is to long hg at dips with stop below 340c.

GOLD and SILVER, week ahead

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GOLD hits a high of $1790 on Friday but unable to stay, closed flat, was a sideways week. Still there is strength to move higher with sideways movement but any outside influence can bring a chance of correction.

Strong support of gold is $1750 and strong res $1799/1801. Intermediate sup $1764/66, below strong sup of $1749/50, can attract corrective back towards $1730/31 and $1718/19. Intermediate res are $1782/83 and $1792.

Any convincing move higher above $1800, can boost towards $1840.

SILVER also hits a high of $35.26 on Friday eve, but fails to stay and closed flat. It was also a sideways week alike gold. Near term sideway to corrective move possible.

Strong support $33.7 and strong res $36/36.08. nearby area $34 to $35.32/36, intermediate areas are $34.36/42, $34.76, $35.

Nature of silver is volatile, strength intact. Any convincing violation of $33.7, can attract correction towards $32/32.38. 

Outside influence or strong momentum above $35, can push towards strong res of $36/36.08. In this scenario can keep in mind about next solid res area which can consider $37 and $37.46/58.

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COPPER to become semi-precious(?)

Uncertainty is rising and so volatility and volatility is a matter of concern. Copper outlook is bullish in long term while now short to midterm became positive.  

On daily picture copper has formed a double rounded bottom holding support area of 328c/lb and given a breakout of 355c/lb area and settled 364c/lb. and nearby target area seems 379/380c/lb.

On weekly another positive indication we are getting as taken out a trend resistance line and given a positive settlement which may hinting to get copper at psychological mark of $4/lb.

Everybody is talking about QE, it is almost certain more QE globally may today or tomorrow but if no QE anyway, then what (?), do you think all the metals and precious metals will fall and will be very cheap (?)… may there will be a sharp and sudden reaction pull prices down which will be very much temporary, investment demand and supply disruption and supply worry will push prices higher even for a new record.

Copper is tending to become semi-precious, the oldest metal of human generation.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest, not a trade recommendation. 

GOLD: failure or trics?

GOLD: last day of this week end with gains and closed just below near term res of $1670/72 and weekly formation is also good. Monday, a flat to +ve open and steadiness ‘ll hint some higher areas.



(**spot gold daily chart)

On last 29^th feb ’12, it fails to breach $1800 area,  sharply fallen to $1688 and damaged for near term, a failure. So many times it's showing failure in last  few months but not failed actually as previous.

(**spot gold weekly chart)

Holding long term trend sup and near term trend sup too. We've to keep eyes open as can make bear trap with any news or event as general sentiment also damaging after longs getting hurt so many times.

 Movement, area of movement and background suggesting me accumulation is going on and not changing my idea till $1500 is intact (due to many reason it’s a big sup area for gold and psychological too).

RECENT HISTORY: While went to the past years movement, in 2008 after given downside breakout it holds and ultimately made a bear trap (can see in my this blog on dt. 24^th oct’08, 15^th nov’08, 22^nd nov’08). (Again I’m grateful to my seniors, suggested me to write this blog).

(**long term weekly spot gold chart ) 

LONG TERM EXPECTATION FOR GOLD:

Till $15k is intact, seeing only buying in dips is better option, record high will be the target above $1800-$1840 and new record probably on the cards. Revising my long term target of $2300 to $2670, followed by $2300, $2100 and $2k.

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crude and bullions

GOLD: glittering. nearby one resistance to overcome and stand avobe of $1764 and can wait for another breakout area of res of $1800 and $1840 (Spot basis) to overcome to challenge record high.

SILVER: waking up and waiting to see a breakout of $35.58/$35.78 area (spot basis) and steadiness above, this can boost it nicely.

CRUDE OIL: as per my last post ONLY crude hits stop in case of BRENT/SWEET spread or long position of WTI, it slipped to $95, again retested but ultimately taken out said res of $104, pointing towards $115-$118 followed by res $106 and $108, $111.

*Background remains supportive.

heading where:

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil:  yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.    

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now  facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

Outlook for USDINR, Light sweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincing break and settlement as shown (CI1) with arrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger area towards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, any convincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which will confirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib 38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd  or final target on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (final target, which is also fib 50% .

BRENT CRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude: formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holds above with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res $103.8.  a positive move is better option for future expectation.  If so, then any convincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alike LS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^st hurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shown as ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as $122.

DOW (spot):  alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res 12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876 (and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind its all time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

 S&P (spot): following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above 1295 convincingly. If so  anda descending res‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot): any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through and good settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincing break above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards 17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustaining above long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER: naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Still seeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in long term. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest.

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

          MARKET:   DONE/OVERDONE,   MATCH/MISMATCH

The movement, mainly of indices seems a relief rally with support of euro zone debt deal.

Think better to wait n watch to get the direction from market for directional trade. Level based and intraday trade preferable.