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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Outlook 07.09.11


We are passing historic time as both major economies of US and EU (as united) is in gloomy situation and possibly solution is far reach and can dampen global growth.


 As economic power is transforming and ongoing question is arising with changing situation about USD as reserve currency, which argument is hot now a days and individually 2nd largest economy China openly wished for Yuan to become a reserve currency (although they may know its not very easy to replace or a time taking process ).  Nigerian central Bank governor told yesterday to Invest 5% To 10% of their reserves In Yuan‎(effect of china's  long time effort on African countries).

In recent time we ‘ve seen central banks coming openly to protect own currency which dampening safe heaven image of some particular currencies like USD and CHF.  As an example SNB intervention yesterday made it weaker for more than 700 pips against USD, possibly it was a historic move for USDCHF.

GOLD: aforesaid reasons are insisting investors and hedgers including central banks to accumulate gold as an alternative. So mid to long term gold will remain difficultly positive, currency war, regrouping of world political powers after fall of Soviet union, rising of China, cornered USA, indicating ancient reserve currency to glitter.
Correction is a part of the market movement and healthy correction always is an opportunity and as price is in record high area and volatility is very high in all sectors so better to stay cautious.

Globex SPOT GOLD made a outside day and engulfment yesterday, which indicate more lower prices ahead and one good sup is $1812-24 and major support $1794/98.

SILVER: volatility increased today, like gold, silver also in uptrend. sup here is $40.50 and one major trend sup $40, below can attract downward pressure while mcx dec silver major trend sup 62600 and any convincing break below can pull prices down towards 61k and 59800.

DJIA:  weak econ situation and lack of confidence of any recovery, fear of 2nd dip of recession supposed to take it lower. Looks became negative, forming secondary bullish channel which normally tends to break down. Nearby resistance 11650, 11800 and sup 10800 and 10600, convincing break below 10600 to move towards 10k and for a longer period possible target 8800.


NB: today US beige book, on tomorrow  Obama speech regarding plan for creating jobs, ECB and UK interest rate decision, ECB Trichet’s speech, Fed Bernanke’s speech can attract more volatility in all sector at the same time direction. Mostly market is waiting for FOMC on 20th and 21st Sept.