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Monday, July 28, 2008

PEOPLE, MARKET, POLITICIANS, MONEY

The typical economical problem: It’s known by everybody that the typical problem before the world is now a days is inflation and at the same time slower growth. But the question is why this stiff inflation??
If we want to go for the answer then some simple things we’ve to think, first of that, what is our first and primary demand to live (?), yes that’s food, which we can get by cultivation only. Production of various crops is not matching the demand; it’s not the main reason??

Natural calamity is one reason behind less production of various crops, but it’s not the only one. Bad quality seeds supplying to cultivators and grabbing of cultivation land for industrialization and other reasons is certainly a serious factor for food when the population is largely ticking higher.

Another one reason behind inflation is rocket high crude prices, which hampering industrial growth. Although world’s biggest economy is going downside of economical cycle, but expectation of higher demand of crude for India, China, Brazil and some other countries, fear of finishing resources and geopolitical unrest is pushing prices higher.

National condition:
In case of our India, we are not out of this problem rather some adverse reason is more is here because some of our leaders are know only politics, badly followers of some others and can throw in ‘recycle bin’ any suggestion if given by the experts.

Example of some eye-washing attempts :
Paddy: Govt fixed some moderate price of paddy to give some relief to cultivators. But the funny thing is buying from mill owners not from the cultivators directly. What the reason behind this??
Wheat: ministers declared we produced more wheat than estimate but what is price in the retail market??
Potato: in all over the country production is really superb and more than normal demand. Cultivators are crying by not getting the price of their production cost. Sometime ministers are telling they’ll fix some better price for cultivators and buying from them, sometime telling they’ll give subsidy for export (will it anyway to help cultivators??), but time is passing only.
But at what is the price in the daily retail market?? Its 7-8 Rs/kg. So who is getting the money in the middle??

Ban on futures market:
Future market is to hedge the underlying risk for exporters, importers, mill owners, cultivators even for the general people also. Only the need is awareness and knowledge. This future market is for better price discovery. Only need is more and maximum participation which can come by creating awareness only.
Some politicians (we have blind faith on politicians and feel proud to be a follower) shouted the higher food prices are due to this futures market. So banned this food items to save the people and shouted by alerting police to keep eye and take action (?) against black marketer and hoarders.
Govt did the ban ignoring the expert committee report. Whenever govt banned on some items (previously on rice and wheat) the price started jumping higher.

So would it be very wrong if we think that to give some better room to black marketers and hoarders (aren’t the main money supplier for political leaders?), politicians taking chances of lack of awareness of the general people and making the general people fool and put us in more trouble??

((Dear friend, I need your opinion and comments on this topic, please do share))

Friday, July 4, 2008

sunshine




Tuesday, July 1, 2008

DOW, what is next



Dow formed a head and shoulder in monthly chart and given the confirmation. It normally indicates a possibility of downward movement. Next major support area will be around 10325/75. Breaking of this area may take it to next area around 8000/100.
Nearby resistance area‘ll be around 12100/200.
RSI entered into oversold area and can become more oversold.
Only any major changes like sudden weakness in crude or any other major data can give some volatility.