heading where:

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil:  yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.    

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now  facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

Outlook for USDINR, Light sweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincing break and settlement as shown (CI1) with arrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger area towards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, any convincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which will confirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib 38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd  or final target on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (final target, which is also fib 50% .

BRENT CRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude: formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holds above with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res $103.8.  a positive move is better option for future expectation.  If so, then any convincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alike LS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^st hurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shown as ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as $122.

DOW (spot):  alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res 12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876 (and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind its all time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

 S&P (spot): following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above 1295 convincingly. If so  anda descending res‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot): any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through and good settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincing break above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards 17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustaining above long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER: naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Still seeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in long term. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest.