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Monday, August 22, 2011

Outlook 22.08.11



There is difference between 2008 and 2011 market and on the background economical situation. The main point was that time big commercial houses failed mainly in US which lead others to become slow, but this time in EU zone countries govt are may in pressure due to huge debt including US but one thing is very common that’s fear.

In 2008 central banks put fund to protect but employment and housing unable to improve mainly in US but only financial market.

Some EU countries are in huge debt, taking breath with ECB bailout fund with a precondition to reduce deficit and likely to impose more taxes on citizens.
Corporates started to slash its manpower from months back in US and possibly in some places of EU and People are concerned.

Even at 2008 n later China bought US and EU countries debt and now under pressure although; …….Joe Biden on Sunday rejected views that American power is waning and said Washington would never default and still the single best bet in the world, in terms of where to invest as per cnbc.com..…
Egypt like agitation by people is rising globally, conflict between countries remain same.
 All the countries are busy to protect their own currency and question about reserve currency and enough warning for a cold war state.

This weekend we’ve to cautiously watch what Mr. Bernanke is going to tell as market expectation is approx 50:50 condition regarding QE.

GOLD: all these points boosted gold historically and end is not visible yet. But any settlement above $1900 with a good day movement can push it to major psychological area of $2k.

SILVER:  the typical silver movement as sent a report on 08th aug and now cleared it was a bear trap (in globex) as shown on that. Strength in silver is seems back and base has completed on $32/$33 area, nearby res $45.5and $47.5 and sup $42.50-$42.70.  Possibly we are going to get a sideways movement for few days within $47.5 and $50.5 and looks is challenging for a new record and according to extended fib it would be $59 and $78. 

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Outlook 04th Aug'11



Global growth scenario darkening erasing hope of recovery and major equity indexes are correcting steadily and showing a possibility of downward trend is on the way at least for short to midterm although market is hoping for united approach of all govts and central banks. This time it may become bit difficult which may gold movement is suggesting.

GOLD: yesterday it made a record of $1675.9 (only a step far to reach $1700, long awaited target came earlier which expected till year end next expected areas are $1900 and $2300) and till now holding a narrow range of $1660-$1674 and showing more strength. From some sources words are coming as margin is going to be hiked and if so, it can trigger some liquidation and we‘ve to be cautious for near term but for mid to long the bullish trend‘ll be intact. Suggest to stay long with stop below $1658.

SILVER: it’s giving a bullish movement but in a different which sometimes looks like weakness. Yesterday it managed to settle above $41. What I’m thinking this movement can lead silver above its all time high of ($%0) which ‘ll be a very sharp and stiff. Suggest to stay long in silver keeping a stop $41.30.
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