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DGCX INRUSD

INR: on 28^th of Aug’13 hopelessly in DGCX INRUSD met the target of last post of 19^th Aug’13(likely-un-likely) by hitting a low of 142.63, while in national exchanges hits record 69.80 for current contract.

A strong suspicion for the sharp weakness of INR will never be revealed.



USDINR sept'13 contract

After the sharp weakness in INR, on Fri, 6^th Sept’13, 

some confirmation for near term correction (reversal?) with a double top confirmation in USDINR which was kept undecided on previous day. From here a near term target can expect 63-62.70 area at the same time need to stay cautious of any odd, developing in background which can put water on optimism.



USDINR spot



MARKET:People/Power/Pressure

GOLD has broken its major sup of $1500/1522 area, made a low of $1476 in GLOBEX late electronic trading and silver too broken its major sup of $26/26.3 area and made a low of $25.725 in late electronic trading. Chart got damaged and technical picture turns negative.

A negative spiral can expect for midterm.  Next sup level is coming at $1436 (Comex gold futures generic and spot gold), which is Fib 38% retracement level from 2008 low to 2012 high and even MA 200 week, another sup is @ $1418/22. So this sup area we can watch whereas strong res $1530 and 1550.
next imp sup area is coming $1288-$1302.

But won’t be surprise if we see a bear trap to form nearby.

Friday, 12^th April ’13 gold pressured by Mr. Draghi comment reg Cyprus gold reserve sale whereas EU finance ministers extend Irish, Portuguese loan repayments 7 more years, easing the burden on their economy and approves Cyprus bailout. on Wednesday there was market talk of Cyprus gold sell but on Thursday Cyprus finance minister ignored any discussion reg this.

This was a panic selling as it did so many times in recent past, this time fear is, if the pressure comes on  other indebted EU countries which may on Cyprus and all come to sale their gold reserve. Gold and silver too slips by hitting huge sell stops.

We all can remember some Famous names suggesting to sell gold as b’coz its useless (in their opinion) and to buy stocks its to move new area, somehow they able to make themselves right supported by less participants and volume irrespective the reason on the ground as its still gloomy for US, very poor for EU, China with much doubt, India is also not well including some other countries.

On this day although all other indices globally was down but US indices covered their day loss and closed near to flat (irrespective of US retail sales and  consumer sentiment  was disappointed) , may pressure to liquidate commodities position to meet up their margin.

US Fed divided for continuing or end QE program and when. Whenever comment is coming off an end sooner than later, pressure is coming on precious, but is it not due to QE, equity was gained much irrespective of econ condition?

In last speech Fed Mr. Bernanke didn’t hint an end sooner.

 What about the other countries? Its ongoing and in Japan its unlimited now.

* Soaring inventory or base metal indicates less demand which mainly for industrial use.

*China importing huge quantity of gold recently it was 72 Mt, and from nov’12 to feb’13 it is 272tons in just four months (data source Kitco).
*Globally most of the central banks increasing their holding to protect their currency and all in a currency war.

GOLD is really precious as because of its nature and human psychology and culture, its always against any type of risk as inflation or deflation, economical or geopolitical even against fiat currency with has industrial demand too. Silver too categorically same in nature with wide industrial use.

CROSSROAD (?)

USD boosted against majors even after spending cut.

DOW and S&P covered sharply from low on Friday and settled near the day high and specially DOW spot at 14089.66, just few point lower of all time high settlement of 14093.08.

Possibly we can see some interesting movement in coming days as major indices, precious and currencies are in crossroad.

GOLD & SILVER:

GOLD was facing selling pressure before last week, slips to $1554.6, and settled at $1575.7 near 2012 lowest close of $1564.5. It is below the secondary bearish channel but for last two weeks it was holding sideways, holding above a critical and major sup area of $1500-$1522.

Open interest reduced last week.

SILVER movement alike gold, here within a secondary bearish channel and on week formed a dozi at  channel sup, although taken out a long trend line sup @30$ area but holding above  strong sup area holding from 2011 is 26$, which is 50% retracement of 1995-2001 low and 2011 high which was a retest of record high.

Seems a half round above $26 has done on weekly settlement basis, to watch if can complete.

Any convincing breakout of critical and major sup areas for gold below $1500/1530 and silver $26, can be damaging for midterm.

ECB, BoE , BoJ rate decisions, China reports and US unemployment rate, nonfarm including some other economical report will bring volatility and direction next week after US declares of spending cut.

Major indices DOW and S&P on record high area while gold and silver holding on major sup for retracement hits all time high. 

(chart 3: long term chart on DOW spot vs gold spot and S&P spot vs gold spot)

Growth, risk, investment and hedge. Currency, Commodity, Indices(equity) .....  choice is ones own. 

(chart 4: gold spot and DOW spot vs USD index)

NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always as it carries risk. 

GOLD TO SHINE

Here taken Gold (spot) chart on weekly basis from 2004 to 2012, full eight years’ movement. Can get two equal part (high/low basis) within as 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012.

1^st part:

It was 376$ of 2004 low, made on month of May’04 and 2008 high was 1038$, made on month of march’08 , scenario of growth behind everywhere including emerging countries just before the housing bubble of US burst, pulling the country in recession and outlook became shaky.

Can see on chart that Gold was pulled down and has taken a retracement of Fib 50% (within March’08 to Oct’08) and ran for a new record breaking 2008 high on Oct’09.        

2^nd part:

After taking out of 2008 high on Oct’09, till now the record high holds at 1920$, made on sept’11. In 2012 gold sticks within a range of 1800$ to 1522$ (278$) and even not retraced to Fib 38.2%, which comes @ 1453$.

Present situation:

Volume is low and sometimes it is very thin. Some sort of manipulation by big funds to pull prices down by hitting huge sell stops with the chance of thin volume took places as per reports observed. But its’ may temporary as b’coz it is very hard to keep market cornered for long time.

 

Still prices holding well above 200 EMA and 100 EMA. Seems it’s a phase of accumulation, gathering momentum.

Near term:

Forming a bull flag in nearby area. Where a sup can consider @1628$, at Fib 23.6% and res which gradually lowered with time but any breakout can shoot to retest 1800$, the 2012 high.

Background and long-term:

From all the corner, as economical or geopolitical its supportive for gold. Question of fiat currency dependency, debt of countries, inflation or deflation and even hyperinflation is also supportive. Even if we can come back to growth then also demand can’t become less rather it‘ll increase.

So, yellow metal has very very negligible chance to become pale rather to shine and glitter. Holding the idea of 2600$, may within 2013 or 1^st quarter of 2014.

So,its a matter of time only for clarity in direction with any breakout for holding longs otherwise to be within range.

NB: market carries risk. This information and thought for academic interest and inside circulation. 

gold and copper

$GOLD: comex gold nearby one good sup area (psychological too) is $1700. it seems here may try to make its 2nd shoulder, if so then it will become a inverse H&S and confirmation to get after
settling above neck line (ascending green line on chart), nearby days it may $1746/48 ($1750)or
may higher area if take longer time.

So, for mid to long term view is to long gold on dips with stop below $1700.





$COPPER: comex copper hold its sup area of 340c here for a longer time and seems may going to
form a rounded bottom here where nearby res will be 355c area.
RSI indicator also suggesting of building here on 340c.

So, for midterm view is to long hg at dips with stop below 340c.

GOLD and SILVER, week ahead

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GOLD hits a high of $1790 on Friday but unable to stay, closed flat, was a sideways week. Still there is strength to move higher with sideways movement but any outside influence can bring a chance of correction.

Strong support of gold is $1750 and strong res $1799/1801. Intermediate sup $1764/66, below strong sup of $1749/50, can attract corrective back towards $1730/31 and $1718/19. Intermediate res are $1782/83 and $1792.

Any convincing move higher above $1800, can boost towards $1840.

SILVER also hits a high of $35.26 on Friday eve, but fails to stay and closed flat. It was also a sideways week alike gold. Near term sideway to corrective move possible.

Strong support $33.7 and strong res $36/36.08. nearby area $34 to $35.32/36, intermediate areas are $34.36/42, $34.76, $35.

Nature of silver is volatile, strength intact. Any convincing violation of $33.7, can attract correction towards $32/32.38. 

Outside influence or strong momentum above $35, can push towards strong res of $36/36.08. In this scenario can keep in mind about next solid res area which can consider $37 and $37.46/58.

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COPPER to become semi-precious(?)

Uncertainty is rising and so volatility and volatility is a matter of concern. Copper outlook is bullish in long term while now short to midterm became positive.  

On daily picture copper has formed a double rounded bottom holding support area of 328c/lb and given a breakout of 355c/lb area and settled 364c/lb. and nearby target area seems 379/380c/lb.

On weekly another positive indication we are getting as taken out a trend resistance line and given a positive settlement which may hinting to get copper at psychological mark of $4/lb.

Everybody is talking about QE, it is almost certain more QE globally may today or tomorrow but if no QE anyway, then what (?), do you think all the metals and precious metals will fall and will be very cheap (?)… may there will be a sharp and sudden reaction pull prices down which will be very much temporary, investment demand and supply disruption and supply worry will push prices higher even for a new record.

Copper is tending to become semi-precious, the oldest metal of human generation.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest, not a trade recommendation. 

crude and bullions

GOLD: glittering. nearby one resistance to overcome and stand avobe of $1764 and can wait for another breakout area of res of $1800 and $1840 (Spot basis) to overcome to challenge record high.

SILVER: waking up and waiting to see a breakout of $35.58/$35.78 area (spot basis) and steadiness above, this can boost it nicely.

CRUDE OIL: as per my last post ONLY crude hits stop in case of BRENT/SWEET spread or long position of WTI, it slipped to $95, again retested but ultimately taken out said res of $104, pointing towards $115-$118 followed by res $106 and $108, $111.

*Background remains supportive.

heading where:

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil:  yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.    

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now  facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook 04th Aug'11

Global growth scenario darkening erasing hope of recovery and major equity indexes are correcting steadily and showing a possibility of downward trend is on the way at least for short to midterm although market is hoping for united approach of all govts and central banks. This time it may become bit difficult which may gold movement is suggesting.

GOLD: yesterday it made a record of $1675.9 (only a step far to reach $1700, long awaited target came earlier which expected till year end next expected areas are $1900 and $2300) and till now holding a narrow range of $1660-$1674 and showing more strength. From some sources words are coming as margin is going to be hiked and if so, it can trigger some liquidation and we‘ve to be cautious for near term but for mid to long the bullish trend‘ll be intact. Suggest to stay long with stop below $1658.

SILVER: it’s giving a bullish movement but in a different which sometimes looks like weakness. Yesterday it managed to settle above $41. What I’m thinking this movement can lead silver above its all time high of ($%0) which ‘ll be a very sharp and stiff. Suggest to stay long in silver keeping a stop $41.30.

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