GOLD TO SHINE

Here taken Gold (spot) chart on weekly basis from 2004 to 2012, full eight years’ movement. Can get two equal part (high/low basis) within as 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012.

1^st part:

It was 376$ of 2004 low, made on month of May’04 and 2008 high was 1038$, made on month of march’08 , scenario of growth behind everywhere including emerging countries just before the housing bubble of US burst, pulling the country in recession and outlook became shaky.

Can see on chart that Gold was pulled down and has taken a retracement of Fib 50% (within March’08 to Oct’08) and ran for a new record breaking 2008 high on Oct’09.        

2^nd part:

After taking out of 2008 high on Oct’09, till now the record high holds at 1920$, made on sept’11. In 2012 gold sticks within a range of 1800$ to 1522$ (278$) and even not retraced to Fib 38.2%, which comes @ 1453$.

Present situation:

Volume is low and sometimes it is very thin. Some sort of manipulation by big funds to pull prices down by hitting huge sell stops with the chance of thin volume took places as per reports observed. But its’ may temporary as b’coz it is very hard to keep market cornered for long time.

 

Still prices holding well above 200 EMA and 100 EMA. Seems it’s a phase of accumulation, gathering momentum.

Near term:

Forming a bull flag in nearby area. Where a sup can consider @1628$, at Fib 23.6% and res which gradually lowered with time but any breakout can shoot to retest 1800$, the 2012 high.

Background and long-term:

From all the corner, as economical or geopolitical its supportive for gold. Question of fiat currency dependency, debt of countries, inflation or deflation and even hyperinflation is also supportive. Even if we can come back to growth then also demand can’t become less rather it‘ll increase.

So, yellow metal has very very negligible chance to become pale rather to shine and glitter. Holding the idea of 2600$, may within 2013 or 1^st quarter of 2014.

So,its a matter of time only for clarity in direction with any breakout for holding longs otherwise to be within range.

NB: market carries risk. This information and thought for academic interest and inside circulation.