GOLD and SILVER, week ahead

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GOLD hits a high of $1790 on Friday but unable to stay, closed flat, was a sideways week. Still there is strength to move higher with sideways movement but any outside influence can bring a chance of correction.

Strong support of gold is $1750 and strong res $1799/1801. Intermediate sup $1764/66, below strong sup of $1749/50, can attract corrective back towards $1730/31 and $1718/19. Intermediate res are $1782/83 and $1792.

Any convincing move higher above $1800, can boost towards $1840.

SILVER also hits a high of $35.26 on Friday eve, but fails to stay and closed flat. It was also a sideways week alike gold. Near term sideway to corrective move possible.

Strong support $33.7 and strong res $36/36.08. nearby area $34 to $35.32/36, intermediate areas are $34.36/42, $34.76, $35.

Nature of silver is volatile, strength intact. Any convincing violation of $33.7, can attract correction towards $32/32.38. 

Outside influence or strong momentum above $35, can push towards strong res of $36/36.08. In this scenario can keep in mind about next solid res area which can consider $37 and $37.46/58.

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COPPER to become semi-precious(?)

Uncertainty is rising and so volatility and volatility is a matter of concern. Copper outlook is bullish in long term while now short to midterm became positive.  

On daily picture copper has formed a double rounded bottom holding support area of 328c/lb and given a breakout of 355c/lb area and settled 364c/lb. and nearby target area seems 379/380c/lb.

On weekly another positive indication we are getting as taken out a trend resistance line and given a positive settlement which may hinting to get copper at psychological mark of $4/lb.

Everybody is talking about QE, it is almost certain more QE globally may today or tomorrow but if no QE anyway, then what (?), do you think all the metals and precious metals will fall and will be very cheap (?)… may there will be a sharp and sudden reaction pull prices down which will be very much temporary, investment demand and supply disruption and supply worry will push prices higher even for a new record.

Copper is tending to become semi-precious, the oldest metal of human generation.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest, not a trade recommendation. 

GOLD: failure or trics?

GOLD: last day of this week end with gains and closed just below near term res of $1670/72 and weekly formation is also good. Monday, a flat to +ve open and steadiness ‘ll hint some higher areas.



(**spot gold daily chart)

On last 29^th feb ’12, it fails to breach $1800 area,  sharply fallen to $1688 and damaged for near term, a failure. So many times it's showing failure in last  few months but not failed actually as previous.

(**spot gold weekly chart)

Holding long term trend sup and near term trend sup too. We've to keep eyes open as can make bear trap with any news or event as general sentiment also damaging after longs getting hurt so many times.

 Movement, area of movement and background suggesting me accumulation is going on and not changing my idea till $1500 is intact (due to many reason it’s a big sup area for gold and psychological too).

RECENT HISTORY: While went to the past years movement, in 2008 after given downside breakout it holds and ultimately made a bear trap (can see in my this blog on dt. 24^th oct’08, 15^th nov’08, 22^nd nov’08). (Again I’m grateful to my seniors, suggested me to write this blog).

(**long term weekly spot gold chart ) 

LONG TERM EXPECTATION FOR GOLD:

Till $15k is intact, seeing only buying in dips is better option, record high will be the target above $1800-$1840 and new record probably on the cards. Revising my long term target of $2300 to $2670, followed by $2300, $2100 and $2k.

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crude and bullions

GOLD: glittering. nearby one resistance to overcome and stand avobe of $1764 and can wait for another breakout area of res of $1800 and $1840 (Spot basis) to overcome to challenge record high.

SILVER: waking up and waiting to see a breakout of $35.58/$35.78 area (spot basis) and steadiness above, this can boost it nicely.

CRUDE OIL: as per my last post ONLY crude hits stop in case of BRENT/SWEET spread or long position of WTI, it slipped to $95, again retested but ultimately taken out said res of $104, pointing towards $115-$118 followed by res $106 and $108, $111.

*Background remains supportive.

heading where:

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY

Market after FOMC:

As per my last thought posted here its going fine till now. USDINR about to reach final target for now.

Cude oil:  yet to make a leap rather retested the support of $77.50/70 area and now seems getting ready for a very near term breakout above $101.50 area(settlement to watch) and again res of $103.8/104 will be the challenged to breached for a shoot up for possible target towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

Spread option is still looking fine . its within 12.3 to 10 till now.    

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

DOW(spot): 2011 high is now  facing the challenge.

GOLD: this move was due and given a solid breakout last night and pointing towards $1765, $1800, $1834/40. staying above and steadyness will challenge the record high.

SILVER: it was outshining gold for last few days. now to face res $33.70 and $35.50. breakout area as per continuation basis and spot basis is comming $36.50.

COPPER: Dr is supported abov $3.75, res $4.02, $4.20 and a range can consider within $3.75 to $4.20.

** market is risk, volatility making it riskier.

Outlook after 1st week of 2012

Outlook for USDINR, Light sweet crude and Brent crude

INDICES, GOLD and SILVER

USDINR (spot): first nearby res 52.40 and convincing break and settlement as shown (CI1) with arrow will confirm a double top (of 1and 2 as shown) and tends to stronger area towards 51.20(1^st target area) followed by 51.85. Secondly, any convincing break and staying below and settlement below of 51.20, which will confirm a H&S formation, which may indicate towards 49.85 followed by fib 38.2% at 50.10 (2^nd  or final target on the basis of situation within 50.10-49.85 area) and 48.90 (final target, which is also fib 50% .

BRENT CRUDE vs LS CRUDE (continuation base):

SPREAD OPTION: BUY $SWEET, SELL $BRENT

LS crude: formed a reverse H&S(showed as 1,2,3 and confirmation on res) and holds above with a +ve week on candle chart (Jan’12 contract) although nearby res $103.8.  a positive move is better option for future expectation.  If so, then any convincing breakout above $103.8/104, a shoot up can possible towards $115 (marked as*) followed by a mild res $104.80/105.20 and $108, $111.

BRENT: alike LS crude it also seems +ve on chart(continuation basis) but ‘ve to face 1^st hurdle at res $116 as months back faced a false break out or bull trap (shown as ‘F’ and within a circle). If can breach above then next res is coming as $122.

DOW (spot):  alike cl, it has also making a reverse H$S, nearby res 12430, and any convincing break higher likely to push towards 2011 hi of 12876 (and a long ascending trend res @13130-160). If so better to keep in mind its all time high is 14198 on 11/10/2007.

 S&P (spot): following dow and can complete a reverse H&S if capable to settle above 1295 convincingly. If so  anda descending res‘ll be @1308/10 and 2011 high of 1370.

NIFTY (spot): any convincing break above 4790 can push towards 4835/40 and follow through and good settlement can push towards 5030 and 5100.

SENSEX (spot): convincing break above 16050 and follow through with good settlement can push towards 17k/17100 followed by 16750.
GOLD: sustaining above long term ascending sup line on weekly basis.
SILVER: naturally volatile as a speculative metal. Tested 2011 low of in the yearend.

Still seeing specially precious is bullish in midterm and ferociously bullish in long term. I’m waiting for getting a better entry point to avoid hit by volatility.

NB: This for sharing thought and interest.

MARKET: DONE/OVERDONE, MATCH/MISMATCH

          MARKET:   DONE/OVERDONE,   MATCH/MISMATCH

The movement, mainly of indices seems a relief rally with support of euro zone debt deal.

Think better to wait n watch to get the direction from market for directional trade. Level based and intraday trade preferable.

Outlook:07.10.11

DOW: on 5th dow(spot) broken strong sup of 10600, hits a low of 10400, the near term decending trend channel sup but covered sharply, made a new day hi in last 40 mins of trading and settled at 10808 (400 points offlows). in the background +ve talk reg EU banks and repeated dialog by mr bernanke reg easing may boosted this movement despite the _ve global situation remains.
now to watch the decending trend channel res area to whach, which is coming @ 11240 at the same time US payroll and employment reports scheduled to release @ 018.00 hrs IST.
probablity of capping the upward move in this area.

GOLD: holds the sup of $1600 on 05th oct and again moving back to the potential res of $1680/82.
altough for mid to long term still its very much bullish but near term lower prices still can expect. nearby potential res area $1682 (extn $1702), suup $1600, $1580 (can't be rulled out to get the area of $1530 again to retest). sideways ot lower till holding below potential res area of $1682-$1702.

SILVER: too much volatile but within a big range. ability of breach $30.32/34 on 5th oct, made a +ve day candle formation and with outside market sup, able to take out res of $31.5 towards potential res of $33.50.
for near term sideways to lower and a chance of retest of $26.30 till holding below the potential res of $33.50.

COPPER: dr. was a gentle counter and this is the first time it is showing this volatility and indicates the econ outlook. $3.33 is a key res today to watch, holding of this res give a hope to get copper towards $3 or lower but breaching and staying abov $3.33, next res will come @ $3.50.
NB: market is typically volatile, but market do the logical only. foreseeing the unforseen realy need to maintain stop always and obviously now when it is too volatile with big movement.

Outlook 07.09.11

We are passing historic time as both major economies of US and EU (as united) is in gloomy situation and possibly solution is far reach and can dampen global growth.

 As economic power is transforming and ongoing question is arising with changing situation about USD as reserve currency, which argument is hot now a days and individually 2^nd largest economy China openly wished for Yuan to become a reserve currency (although they may know its not very easy to replace or a time taking process ).  Nigerian central Bank governor told yesterday to Invest 5% To 10% of their reserves In Yuan‎(effect of china's  long time effort on African countries).

In recent time we ‘ve seen central banks coming openly to protect own currency which dampening safe heaven image of some particular currencies like USD and CHF.  As an example SNB intervention yesterday made it weaker for more than 700 pips against USD, possibly it was a historic move for USDCHF.

GOLD: aforesaid reasons are insisting investors and hedgers including central banks to accumulate gold as an alternative. So mid to long term gold will remain difficultly positive, currency war, regrouping of world political powers after fall of Soviet union, rising of China, cornered USA, indicating ancient reserve currency to glitter.

Correction is a part of the market movement and healthy correction always is an opportunity and as price is in record high area and volatility is very high in all sectors so better to stay cautious.

Globex SPOT GOLD made a outside day and engulfment yesterday, which indicate more lower prices ahead and one good sup is $1812-24 and major support $1794/98.

SILVER: volatility increased today, like gold, silver also in uptrend. sup here is $40.50 and one major trend sup $40, below can attract downward pressure while mcx dec silver major trend sup 62600 and any convincing break below can pull prices down towards 61k and 59800.

DJIA:  weak econ situation and lack of confidence of any recovery, fear of 2^nd dip of recession supposed to take it lower. Looks became negative, forming secondary bullish channel which normally tends to break down. Nearby resistance 11650, 11800 and sup 10800 and 10600, convincing break below 10600 to move towards 10k and for a longer period possible target 8800.

NB: today US beige book, on tomorrow  Obama speech regarding plan for creating jobs, ECB and UK interest rate decision, ECB Trichet’s speech, Fed Bernanke’s speech can attract more volatility in all sector at the same time direction. Mostly market is waiting for FOMC on 20th and 21st Sept. 

Outlook 22.08.11

There is difference between 2008 and 2011 market and on the background economical situation. The main point was that time big commercial houses failed mainly in US which lead others to become slow, but this time in EU zone countries govt are may in pressure due to huge debt including US but one thing is very common that’s fear.

In 2008 central banks put fund to protect but employment and housing unable to improve mainly in US but only financial market.

Some EU countries are in huge debt, taking breath with ECB bailout fund with a precondition to reduce deficit and likely to impose more taxes on citizens.

Corporates started to slash its manpower from months back in US and possibly in some places of EU and People are concerned.

Even at 2008 n later China bought US and EU countries debt and now under pressure although; …….Joe Biden on Sunday rejected views that American power is waning and said Washington would never default and still the single best bet in the world, in terms of where to invest as per cnbc.com..…

Egypt like agitation by people is rising globally, conflict between countries remain same.

 All the countries are busy to protect their own currency and question about reserve currency and enough warning for a cold war state.

This weekend we’ve to cautiously watch what Mr. Bernanke is going to tell as market expectation is approx 50:50 condition regarding QE.

GOLD: all these points boosted gold historically and end is not visible yet. But any settlement above $1900 with a good day movement can push it to major psychological area of $2k.

SILVER:  the typical silver movement as sent a report on 08^th aug and now cleared it was a bear trap (in globex) as shown on that. Strength in silver is seems back and base has completed on $32/$33 area, nearby res $45.5and $47.5 and sup $42.50-$42.70.  Possibly we are going to get a sideways movement for few days within $47.5 and $50.5 and looks is challenging for a new record and according to extended fib it would be $59 and $78.