Here taken Gold
(spot) chart on weekly basis from 2004 to 2012, full eight years’ movement. Can
get two equal part (high/low basis) within as 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012.
1st
part:
It was 376$
of 2004 low, made on month of May’04 and 2008 high was 1038$, made on month of march’08
, scenario of growth behind everywhere including emerging countries just before
the housing bubble of US burst, pulling the country in recession and outlook
became shaky.
Can see on
chart that Gold was pulled down and has taken a retracement of Fib 50% (within
March’08 to Oct’08) and ran for a new record breaking 2008 high on Oct’09.
2nd
part:
After
taking out of 2008 high on Oct’09, till now the record high holds at 1920$,
made on sept’11. In 2012 gold sticks within a range of 1800$ to 1522$ (278$)
and even not retraced to Fib 38.2%, which comes @ 1453$.
Present
situation:
Volume is
low and sometimes it is very thin. Some sort of manipulation by big funds to
pull prices down by hitting huge sell stops with the chance of thin volume took
places as per reports observed. But its’ may temporary as b’coz it is very hard
to keep market cornered for long time.
Still
prices holding well above 200 EMA and 100 EMA. Seems it’s a phase of
accumulation, gathering momentum.
Near term:
Forming a
bull flag in nearby area. Where a sup can consider @1628$, at Fib 23.6% and res
which gradually lowered with time but any breakout can shoot to retest 1800$,
the 2012 high.
Background and long-term:
From all
the corner, as economical or geopolitical its supportive for gold. Question of
fiat currency dependency, debt of countries, inflation or deflation and even
hyperinflation is also supportive. Even if we can come back to growth then also
demand can’t become less rather it‘ll increase.
So, yellow
metal has very very negligible chance to become pale rather to shine and
glitter. Holding the idea of 2600$, may within 2013 or 1st quarter
of 2014.
So,its a matter
of time only for clarity in direction with any breakout for holding longs otherwise
to be within range.
NB: market carries risk. This information and thought for academic interest and inside circulation.